Canadian Jobs Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, gains again after two months of losses

Canada will release August employment figures on Friday, September 9 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers at five major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. 

15K new workers are expected in August after the losses recorded in June (-43K) and July (-31K). But the unemployment rate is set to increase to 5% from 4.9%.

RBC Economics

“We expect Canadian employment rose by 5K jobs in August. This would follow two consecutive monthly declines. These recent sluggish developments stem almost entirely from a lack of available workers, not weakening demand. At over 1 million in June, job vacancies were still well above pre-pandemic levels. We look for an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.0% (which is still very low).”

TDS

“We look for the Canadian labour market to add 15K jobs in August for a muted rebound from the consecutive declines across June and July, with gains spread across goods and services. Tight labour market conditions should help wages edge higher to 5.5%, and we expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.9%.”

NBF

“Our call is for a 15K increase. Despite this gain, the unemployment rate could increase from 4.9% to 5.1%, assuming the participation rate rose two ticks to 64.9%.”

Citibank

“We expect a rebound in jobs of 30K in August. Wages in the monthly labor force survey have been volatile and suggest inflationary pressures caused by a tight labor market could be somewhat less embedded in Canada. As tighter monetary policy acts to cool demand, moderating wage growth will be a sign that inflationary pressures could ease somewhat faster in Canada.”

CIBC

“We’re anticipating only tepid net hiring in August (5K). Slower growth within the economy later this year and into 2023 could see the unemployment rate rise moderately to 5% from its current historic low levels.”