USD/IDR Price News: Rupiah remains firmer below $15,000 on upbeat Indonesia trade data

• USD/IDR pokes intraday low after upbeat Indonesia trade numbers for August.
• Fears surrounding China, hawkish Fed bets challenge sellers amid dicey markets.
• US Retail Sales, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impulse.

USD/IDR drops for the second consecutive day, taking offers to renew intraday low near $14,883, on upbeat Indonesia trade data published during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Indonesia rupiah (IDR) pair ignores the US dollar’s recovery moves ahead of the key US Retail Sales.

Indonesia marked robust trade numbers for August as the headlines Trade Balance rose to $5.76B versus $4.09B market forecasts and $4.22B prior. Also, the Exports grew 30.15% and the Imports rose 32.81% compared to the expectations of 19.19% and 30.6% in that order.

It should be noted that the headlines from Bloomberg suggesting China’s readiness for the worst economic slowdown, dire than the one seen in 2020, failed to push back the USD/IDR bears. The reason could be linked to Beijing’s readiness for more stimulus, around 200 billion yuan as per the latest chatters.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses the previous day’s downbeat performance around 109.70 even as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) flashed softer readings in August. US PPI declined to 8.7% YoY in August from 9.8% in July, versus 8.8% market forecasts. Details suggest that the PPI ex Food & Energy, better known as Core PPI, also eased to 7.3% YoY from 7.6% but surpassed the market expectation of 7.1%. Even so, the 75% chance of the Fed’s 75 basis points (bps) rate hike in the next week, as well as the 25% odds favoring the full 100 bps Fed rate lift, as per the CME’s FedWatch Tool, favor the DXY bulls.

On a broader front, US President Joe Biden’s rejection of US fears and China’s stimulus are some of the key developments that should have favored the risk appetite. However, the Sino-American tussles and the energy crisis in Europe seemed to have challenged the optimism. It’s worth noting that the looming labor strike in the US appears an extra burden on the risk appetite.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,670 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain directionless near 3.416%. Additionally, Indonesia’s equity benchmark IDX Composite Index rises 1.17% intraday by the press time.

Having witnessed the initial impact of Indonesia data, the USD/IDR may witness hardships in extending the latest downside ahead of the US Retail Sales for August, expected to remain unchanged at 0.0%.

Technical analysis

The rising wedge bearish chart pattern keeps USD/IDR bears hopeful unless the quote stays below the $14,975 hurdle. However, a clear downside break of the $14,830 becomes necessary for the bear’s conviction.