Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hangs near YTD low, just above $1,660 amid stronger USD

• Gold meets with a fresh supply on Monday amid a goodish pickup in the USD demand.
• Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the buck.
• The risk-off impulse fails to impress bullish traders or lend any support to the XAU/USD.

Gold struggles to capitalize on Friday's goodish rebound from its lowest level since April 2020 and meets with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week. The XAU/USD continues losing ground through the early European session and drops to a fresh daily low, around the $1,660 area in the last hour.

The intraday descent is sponsored by the emergence of fresh buying around the US dollar, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The stronger US consumer inflation data released last week all but cemented expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace.

In fact, the markets have been pricing in a small chance of a full 100 bps rate increase at this week's FOMC meeting. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Even the prevalent risk-off environment fails to impress bullish traders or offer any support to the safe-haven gold. The rapidly rising borrowing costs, along with the economic headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, have been fueling recession fears.

Adding to this, the worsening US-China relationship tempers investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets, which is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets. In the latest development, US President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.

It, however, remains to be seen if bearish traders can maintain their dominant position or opt to lighten their bets ahead of the central bank event risks. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will announce their respective policy decisions during the latter part of the week.

In the meantime, the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks should continue to act as a headwind for gold. This, in turn, suggests that any meaningful recovery attempt could be seen as a selling opportunity amid absent relevant market-moving economic data from the US.

Technical levels to watch