AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls struggle to make it through 0.6300 confluence ahead of US CPI

• AUD/USD gains traction for the second straight day amid a modest USD downtick.
• The risk-on impulse undermines the buck and benefits the risk-sensitive aussie.
• The 0.6300 confluence hurdle caps the upside ahead of the crucial US CPI report.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buying for the second straight day on Thursday and might now be looking to build on the previous day's bounce from its lowest level since April 2020. Currently placed around the 0.6300 round-figure mark, a modest US dollar weakness turns out to be a key factor offering support to the major.

A recovery in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - undermines the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive aussie. That said, hawkish Fed expectations should act as a tailwind for the greenback and cap gains for the AUD/USD pair ahead of the crucial US CPI report, due later during the early North American session.

From a technical perspective, the uptick could be attributed to some short-covering move amid slightly oversold conditions and ahead of the key data risk. The 0.6300 confluence, comprising 100-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall from the 0.6540-0.6550 supply zone, continues to cap the upside. This should now act as a pivotal point for intraday traders.

A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the AUD/USD pair to the next relevant resistance near the 0.6330 region en route to the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 0.6355 zone. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for additional gains and allow bulls to reclaim the 0.6400 mark. The latter represents another confluence comprising 200-hour SMA and 50% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, the 0.6250 horizontal zone is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the YTD low, around the 0.6235 region. This is followed by the 0.6200 round-figure mark, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of a well-established downtrend witnessed over the past six months or so.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart

Key levels to watch