EUR/USD Price Analysis: Oscillates around the 20-day EMA eyeing Friday’s US economic data

• EUR/USD marches firmly towards 0.9800 on broad US dollar weakness, following a hot US inflation report.
• EUR/USD’s failure to crack the 200-EMA in the hourly chart could send the pair diving towards 0.9700; otherwise, expect a test of 0.9900.

The EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, though it faced solid resistance around the 20-day EMA at 0.9788, and finished the session with gains of 0.76% after hitting a daily low of 0.9631. As the Asian Pacific session begins, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9772, below its opening price, by a minimal 0.02%.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

The EUR/USD technical side depicts the major as downward biased. Since the end of February 2022, the EUR/USD dropped below the 20-day EMA, a dynamic resistance level that traders have been using. Even though the EUR/USD had spans trading above it, most of the time price stalled at the 20-day EMA and retraced to lower price levels. So failure to crack it could open the door for further losses. Therefore, the EUR/USD first support would be the October 13 low of 0.9631, followed by the 0.9600 figure, ahead of the YTD low at 0.9538.

Short term, the one-hour time frame depicts the EUR/USD bias as neutral. Of note, the major tested the 200-EMA during the day, but it could not surpass it. Hence, based on price action, the EUR/USD might consolidate around the 0.9774-0.9800 area, though failure to break the top of the range could pave the way for further losses.

Once the EUR/USD breaks 0.9800, key resistance levels lie at the R1 daily pivot at 0.9840, followed by the 0.9900 figure ahead of parity.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD first support would be the daily pivot point at 0.9740, followed by the confluence of the 50/100-EMAs around d0.9715/16, ahead of 0.9700.

Also read: EUR/USD makes a U-turn, climbing to daily highs nearby 0.9800 after hot US inflation

EUR/USD Key Technical Levels