Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD continues to baffle investors around $1,650 amid subdued DXY

• Gold price is oscillating around $1,650.00 amid a quiet market mood.
• The odds of a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike by the Fed are skyrocketing.  
• Fed’s extreme policy tightening measures are approaching a recession situation.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has continued to auction sideways following the bewilderness in the US dollar index (DXY). The precious metal is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a $1,647.50-1,655.00 range in the Tokyo session. S&P500 futures have witnessed a mild correction, however, the risk-on profile is still solid and could trim the appeal for safe-haven assets ahead.

The US dollar index (DXY) is continuously oscillating below the critical hurdle of 112.00. The DXY is in a make or a break situation and minor volatility could drag it to test Monday’s low of 111.50. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields are hovering around 4.21%.

The odds of a fourth consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are skyrocketing. A Reuters poll on Fed’s interest rate projections claims that a 75 bps rate hike is a done deal. As price pressures have not reacted in line with the projections, policy tightening is the only measure to contain the inflation mess.

Apart from that, recession fears in the US economy are gaining a lot of traction. US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen cited “Cannot rule out risk” of a recession, reported MSNBC news.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, gold prices have dropped after facing barricades of around $1,670.00. The precious metal has declined to near the horizontal support placed from Thursday’s high at $1,645.67. The yellow metal is hovering around the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,650.46.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates the unavailability of a potential trigger for a decisive move.

Gold hourly chart