EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro clings above 147.00 as a negative divergence emerges

• The EUR/JPY extends its rally to three consecutive days of gains, up 1.37% in the week.
• A negative divergence between EUR/JPY price action and RSI in the daily chart opens the door for further downside.
• Short term, the EUR/JPY is subdued, trapped in the 146.60-147.72 range

The EUR/JPY edged higher during Wednesday’s trading session, courtesy of mixed market sentiment, helping the Japanese Yen to curtail earlier losses, though it finished with gains of 0.11%. As the Asian Pacific session begins, the EUR/JPY is trading at 147.55, down by a minuscule 0.04%.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY daily chart illustrates the pair as neutral to upward biased, though it’s important to point out that price action is registering higher highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not. Therefore, a negative divergence might be forming, which has negative implications for the Euro. However, the EUR/JPY needs to tumble below the October 25 daily low at 146.62, followed by a break below the October 24 daily open at 145.64; otherwise, upside risks remain. On the flip side, if the EUR/JPY extends its gain and the RSI clears the previous peak at 70.82, a challenge of the YTD highs at 148.40 is on the cards.

In the short term, the EUR/JPY hourly chart illustrates a shrinking price action, followed by the last Friday’s and Monday’s interventions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ),  as the EUR/JPY seesawed in a wide range of 400 pips between the high/low of the day. So in the last couple of days, the EUR/JPY is range bound, fluctuating between the 146.60-147.72 range.

Key resistance lies at the top of the range around 147.72, which, once broken, the EUR/JPY can rally towards the R1 daily pivot at 147.82. The break above will expose the R2 pivot level at 148.17, followed by the R3 daily pivot at 148.61.

On the flip side, the EUR/JPY first demand zone will be the 20-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 147.49, followed by the 50-EMA at 147.30 and the 100-EMa at 147.00 flat.

EUR/JPY Key Technical Levels