NZDUSD bears eye a break below 0.6130

• NZDUSD bulls eye further weakness in the US Dollar.
• Technicals point to the downside on a break below 0.6130.

NZDUSD is potentially topping as per the charts below, but it was a quiet day mid-week in financial markets. The price is hovering around 0.6150, between the overnight high of 0.6193 and 0.6128.

Stellar US Retail Sales did little to help the beaten-down US Dollar. In the US, October sales climbed 1.3% MoM beating, expectations of a 1.0% rise and strongly up vs the 0.0% print in September. ''The data point to still strong consumer demand which is something that the Fed is trying to reduce via its rapid monetary tightening. The data justify a 50bp rate increase from the Fed in December,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained.

There is growing confidence that the US Dollar cycle has peaked, and the analysts at ANZ Bank said their focus is on the NZD’s gap to fair value (which they see at ~0.65), on the RBNZ. The analysts said the central bank is ''well placed to close the gap on US interest rates, and on China’s re-opening, which ought to be good for commodities. But it’s complex given late-cycle fears of the Fed’s still fairly resolute tone. Technicals still look reasonably bullish, in our view.''

NZDUSD technical analysis

The price is topping out on the time frames as per the hourly chart above and the 4-hour chart below:

On the 4-hour chart, however, there are prospects of a triple-top scenario as illustrated above.