S&P 500 Index: Risk still seen for an eventual test of the 200DMA at 4073 – Credit Suisse

S&P 500’s strength has stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 fall at 3999. However, analysts at Credit Suisse still expect a break in due course and another short-term leg higher to test tough resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average, currently at 4073.

3860/46 to hold to maintain the potential for a test of the 200DMA

“Whilst further consolidation below 3999 should be allowed for, or even a 1-2 day deeper correction lower, our bias remains to look for a sustained move above here in due course for another short-term leg higher to test what we see as more significant resistance from the long-term 200DMA, currently seen at 4073, where we would then look for better sellers to show.” 

“Support is seen at 3953/49 initially, below which would confirm a deeper 1-2 day setback to the 3912 recent high, potentially even the recent price gap and broken 63-day average at 3860/46. However, we look for this to hold to maintain the potential for a test of the 200DMA. Below though would be a strong signal that this bear market rally is over for a resumption of the broader downtrend.”