USD/TRY treads water around 18.60, focus on Fed Minutes

• USD/TRY remains sidelined for the second consecutive day.
• Turkiye’s geopolitical tension with Syria jostles with improved Consumer Confidence to challenge traders.
• US Dollar inaction ahead of the key data/events also restricts the Turkish Lira pair’s immediate moves.

USD/TRY seesaws around 18.60-65 during the second day of inaction heading into Wednesday’s European session.

In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair struggles between the geopolitical and economic catalysts ahead of the key US data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

“Turkiye will attack militants with tanks and soldiers soon,” said President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday per Reuters. The national was also quoted in the news as signaling a possible ground offensive against a Kurdish militia in Syria after retaliatory strikes escalated along the Syrian border.

Elsewhere, Turkish Consumer Confidence rose for the fifth consecutive month to 76.6 in November, per the latest readings flashed the previous day. The sentiment gauge rebound from a record low of 63.4 in June despite a continuing surge in inflation, according to Reuters. “The biggest improvement in confidence was seen in the general economic situation expectation over the next 12 months, which rose 3.4% from a month earlier, to stand at 80.5 points,” added the news.

On the other hand, China’s daily coronavirus counts head towards the record top marked in April while the virus numbers from Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing also increased, which in turn defends the USD/TRY bulls. On the same line were headlines from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoting Nomura’s Chief Economist Lu Ting as saying, “China’s economic growth next year appears to entirely hinge on a potential exit from its zero-covid policy, and even if such a shift occurs, more pain is inevitable before the real recovery.” Hence, Covid woes appear a drag for the USD/TRY pair.

Against this backdrop, the US Treasury yields remain unchanged while the S&P 500 Futures also remain static as traders await the key US PMIs for November, as well as the Fed Minutes. That said, the USD/TRY pair’s further downside hinges on how well the FOMC rejects dovish calls from the policymakers.

Technical analysis

The USD/TRY pair’s repeated failure to cross the 19.00 threshold keeps sellers hopeful.