Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD prepares for US NFP with a step back to $1,800

• Gold price retreats from four-month high, snaps three-day uptrend.
• Market’s consolidation ahead of the key US jobs reports probes XAU/USD bulls.
• IMF’s Georgieva cites recession risks to strengthen gold’s pullback moves.
• US NFP may renew the metal’s upside but $1,807 is the key hurdle to watch.

Gold price (XAU/USD) repeats the typical pre-NFP consolidation as it slides from a four-month high to $1,798 during early Friday. In doing so, the yellow metal prints the first daily loss in four amid cautious markets.

In addition to the anxiety ahead of the key US employment data, recent comments from International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also seemed to have probed the XAU/USD bulls amid sluggish trading hours. “Recession risks are rising for many countries, the outlook for global growth is exceptionally uncertain and dominated by risks,” said IMF’s Georgieva.

Additionally, fears surrounding the slowdown in the Initial Public Offering (IPO) markets could also be cited as a distant catalyst for the Gold price pullback. “A global slowdown in initial public offerings due to heightened market volatility and a regulatory cloud over new listings from China has created pent-up demand that could lead to an IPO boom in 2023, industry executives told the Reuters NEXT conference.”

Furthermore, the recent comments from New York Fed’s John Williams seemed to have tested the US Dollar bears, as well as favored Gold sellers, as the policymakers stated that the Fed has a ways to go with rate rises.

Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.30% intraday to 4,070 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields printed a corrective bounce off the 10-week low to 3.53% by the press time.

It’s worth noting, however, that the dovish concerns surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move, backed by the downbeat Fedspeak and softer US data, seem to keep the gold bears hopeful ahead of the US employment. Forecasts suggest headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is likely to ease with a 200K print versus 261K prior while the Unemployment Rate could remain unchanged at 3.7%. It should be noted that a likely easing in the Average Hourly Earnings for the stated month could also weigh on the Gold price.

Technical analysis

Overbought conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, triggered the Gold price retreat from a multi-day top. The pullback moves, however, remain elusive as the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator flashes bullish signals.

That said, the previous monthly top surrounding $1,787 restricts the immediate downside of the yellow metal ahead of highlighting the $1,757-55 support confluence including the 100-SMA and the resistance-turned-support line from November 15.

Following that, two-month-old horizontal support near $1,730 could act as the last defense of the Gold buyers.

Alternatively, an upward-sloping resistance line from early October joins the tops marked in August to highlight the $1,807 as the key hurdle to the north.

Gold price: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited downside expected