NZD/USD Price Analysis: Fades bounce off 50-HMA, 0.6300 holds key to bear’s conviction

• NZD/USD retreats towards 50-HMA, snaps two-day winning streak.
• Bearish MACD signals, weekly resistance line keep sellers hopeful
• Convergence of 200-HMA, ascending trend line from late November challenge further downside.
• Bulls need validation from 0.6470-75 to refresh yearly top.

NZD/USD remains mildly offered around 0.6350 heading into Thursday’s European session.

In doing so, the Kiwi pair struggles to extend the day-start bounce off the 50-Hour Moving Average (HMA) while defending the one-week-old bearish trend, as shown by the descending trend line. Also supporting the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals.

That said, a clear downside break of the 50-HMA, around 0.6335 by the press time, holds the key to the NZD/USD pair’s short-term downside.

Even so, the 200-HMA and an upward-sloping trend line from November 28, close to 0.6300, appears a tough nut to crack for the Kiwi pair sellers.

Following that, a slump towards the late November swing low near 0.6155 can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, recovery moves need not only cross the weekly resistance line, around 0.6365 at the latest, but should also cross the monthly high surrounding 0.6475 to lure the NZD/USD bulls.

It’s worth noting that the August month’s peak near 0.6470 adds strength to the 0.6470-75 resistance area.

During the quote's sustained trading beyond 0.6475, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair's moves from November 28 to December 05, close to 0.6510, will be on the NZD/USD buyer's radar.

Overall, NZD/USD is likely to remain weak for the short term and the sellers can regain control on a successful break of 0.6300.

NZD/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited downside expected