US CPI could entail notable USD fluctuations in an unsettled market – Commerzbank

The wait is over! Today the US inflation data for December will be published. The Dollar could see notable fluctuations in an unsettled market, according to economists at Commerzbank.

Future inflation developments seem uncertain

“It is quite possible that in case of the data remaining within the framework of the expectations or slightly below, everyone will feel confirmed in their view: The market sees the scenario of falling interest rates in the second half to be confirmed and trades the Dollar generally lower. The Fed acknowledges a fall in the rate of inflation but does not see this as a reason to consider the inflation pressure to really be falling on a sustainable basis and remains cautious.”

“However, there is another possibility; and that is that inflation will continue to be a black box. The reasonably stable development of market expectations might therefore disguise the high underlying uncertainty about the future inflation outlook.”

“Hard facts such as today’s inflation data always entail the hope that significant insight might be gained – and thus the risk of more notable fluctuations in market expectations and the Dollar in an unsettled market.”

See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, price pressures to ease further