NZD/USD Price Analysis: Teasing sellers inside weekly triangle, 0.6345 is the key

• NZD/USD struggles to defend bulls inside one-week-old ascending triangle.
• 200-SMA, previous resistance from mid-December adds to the downside filters.
• RSI retreat, sluggish MACD lures bears amid dull markets.

NZD/USD stays defensive around 0.6390, following a retreat from multi-day high, as traders await the key China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) during early Tuesday. Also likely to have probed the Kiwi pair buyers are recently released downbeat quarterly economic forecasts by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER).

Also read: NZIER QSBO: New Zealand business confidence at lowest since 1974

That said, the quote pokes the support line of the weekly ascending triangle, close to 0.6375 by the press time, amid mildly bearish MACD signals and the RSI (14) weakness.

With this, the NZD/USD prices are likely to break the immediate support surrounding 0.6375. However, the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) level surrounding 0.6345 appears crucial for the bears.

Following that, the resistance-turned-support line from December 13, 2022, around 0.6265 at the latest, could challenge the Kiwi bears before giving them control.

On the flip side, the aforementioned triangle’s top line, close to 0.6425 by the press time, restricts the short-term NZD/USD upside.

Should the Kiwi pair buyers defy the triangle formation and keep the reins past 0.6425, the 0.6500 round figure and previous monthly peak near 0.6515 could challenge the quote’s upside momentum.

Overall, NZD/USD pair is likely to witness further weakness but the rejection of the bullish trend is yet absent from the radar.

NZD/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected