Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD plunges to near $1,810 as Fed prepares for higher terminal rate

• Gold price has been dumped by investors on extremely hawkish Fed Powell’s commentary.
• S&P500 plummeted on Tuesday as more rates from the Fed confirm a United States recession.
• Gold price looks set to re-test an eight-day low at $1,804.00 amid a dismal market mood.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has witnessed an intense sell-off from the market participants as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony before Congress, has confirmed that the central bank is prepared for more rates than previously anticipated. Considering the fact that consumer spending is resilient and the labor market is extremely tight, the Fed has no other option than to make monetary tools more restrictive.

S&P500 plummeted on Tuesday as more rates from the Fed confirm a United States recession, portraying a dismal market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) received exceptionally high bids as investors underpinned the risk-aversion theme. The USD Index has refreshed its three-month high at 105.65. The 10-year US Treasury yields have failed to catch the 4.0% resistance despite the extremely hawkish stance from Fed chair Jerome Powell.

This was the first commentary from Fed Powell after a less-than-anticipated decline in US Consumer Price Index and unusual solid payroll data for January. It shows that fears of persistent inflation are certain and the Fed is ready to gear up the terminal rate ahead. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the chances of 50 basis points (bps) rate hike have scaled above 70%.

For further guidance, US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (Feb) will remain in focus. According to the estimates, the US economy has added fresh payrolls by 200K in the labor market, higher than the former release of 106K.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is declining towards the eight-day low support placed from February 28 low at $1,804.70. A break below the same would drag it further toward the horizontal support plotted from December 15 low at $1,773.90. The mighty 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,850.88 has acted as a major barricade for the Gold bulls.

Tuesday’s sell-off in the Gold price has pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more weakness ahead.

Gold four-hour chart