EUR/USD bounces off 2-month lows near 1.0520, looks at Powell, data

• EUR/USD extends the bearish note to the vicinity of 1.0520.
• EMU Q4 GDP Growth Rate came at 0% QoQ, 1.8% YoY.
• US ADP report, Powell’s testimony next of note later in the session.

Price action around the European currency remains subdued and prompts EUR/USD to navigate the lower end of the weekly range near 1.0540 on Wednesday.

EUR/USD weaker post-Powell

Following an earlier drop to new multi-week lows near 1.0520, EUR/USD manages to regain some balance and flirts with the 1.0550 region on the back of the persistent firm note in the greenback.

The pair, in the meantime, seems to have met some temporary contention in the 1.0525/20 band following the Powell-induced sell off on Tuesday against the backdrop of renewed bets of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed later in the month.

On the latter, the US money market appears to confirm that change of expectations after the 2-year yield trade above the 5% threshold for the first time since June 2007.

A deeper retracement in the pair, however, seems not favoured for the time being, as traders reduced markedly their open interest positions on Tuesday according to advanced data from CME Group for EUR futures markets.

In the domestic docket, another revision of the Q4 GDP Growth Rate now sees the EMU's economy flat QoQ and expanding 1.8% over the last twelve months. Earlier in the session, the Industrial Production in Germany expanded 3.5% in January vs. the previous month.

In the NA session, Chief Powell will testify once again before the Congress. Other than that, the usual weekly Mortgage Applications are due seconded by the ADP report, Balance of Trade, JOLTs Job Openings and the Fed’s Beige Book.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD plummeted to fresh 2-month lows on the back of the acute rebound in the greenback after investors shifted their expectations to a larger rate hike by the Fed at the March gathering

In the meantime, price action around the European currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the potential next moves from the ECB after the bank has already anticipated another 50 bps rate raise at the March event.

Back to the euro area, recession concerns now appear to have dwindled, which at the same time remain an important driver sustaining the ongoing recovery in the single currency as well as the hawkish narrative from the ECB.

Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Retail Sales/Industrial Production, EMU Advanced Q4 GDP Growth Rate, ECB Lagarde (Wednesday) – Germany Final Inflation Rate, ECB Lagarde (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle amidst dwindling bets for a recession in the region and still elevated inflation. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, the pair is retreating 0.11% at 1.0538 and faces the next support at 1.0524 (monthly low March 8) seconded by 1.0481 (2023 low January 6) and finally 1.0325 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, the breakout of 1.0713 (55-day SMA) would target 1.0804 (weekly high February 14) en route to 1.1032 (2023 high February 2).