Immediate rate outlook seems to offer further USD potential – Commerzbank

The US Dollar appreciated on a broad basis on Tuesday. Economists at Commerzbank expect the greenback to remain firm for the time being.

Risks for EUR/USD are clearly on the USD side of things for now

“The risks for EUR/USD are clearly on the USD side of things for now. Our US economists do not exclude a rate peak at 6% if the data due for publication is sufficiently strong. The immediate rate outlook, therefore, seems to offer further potential despite the renewed upside correction of the US Dollar.” 

“On the Euro side of things, the surprisingly strong fall in inflation expectations for the next three years in the monthly ECB consumer survey yesterday support the doves on the ECB board, thus limiting the upside in EUR/USD for now.”

“The focus today will be on the number of job openings and the ADP employment report. This set of data is often used as a first indication of the labour market report, but it does not really reduce the potential for surprises as was illustrated impressively last month. In other words: of course today’s data can cause volatility, but only the labour market report on Friday will create sustainable momentum for EUR/USD.”