UK GDP Preview: Forecasts from three major banks, likely January rebound

The UK growth numbers are slated for release on Friday, March 10 at 07:00 GMT as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers of three major banks regarding the upcoming Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

January GDP is expected at 0.1% month-on-month vs. -0.5% in December.

ING

“UK economic output fell sharply in December, and probably only partially rebounded in January. Admittedly, these monthly GDP figures have been hard to read, owing to distortions surrounding both the Queen’s funeral last September and then the World Cup (which threw around consumer services activity). That December plunge, however, means that the economy is likely to register an overall first-quarter GDP decline (our current forecast is for a 0.2% fall). The underlying trend in the economy appears to be one of very gradual contraction, thanks in part to an ongoing downtrend in retail spending. We’re expecting a technical recession in the UK in the first half of this year, albeit one that’s not much to write home about. The fall in wholesale gas prices should help consumer bills fall by the summer, which should limit further damage to consumer spending.”

SocGen

“We expect a minor fall of 0.1% in services output. Manufacturing output should have been roughly flat but the milder-than-usual weather should have reduced energy output with the result being a fall of 0.2% in overall industrial production. Construction output should have been flat. Putting that altogether leads to a forecast of a 0.1% fall in both mom and 3m/3m GDP growth in January.”

Credit Suisse

“We expect UK GDP to fall by 0.2% MoM in January.”