USD/MXN Price Analysis: Retakes 19.00 mark, eyes 100-day SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence hurdle

• USD/MXN gains traction for the fourth straight day and trades near a one-month high set on Monday.
• Bulls now await a move beyond the 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. confluence before placing fresh bets.
• Weakness back below the 18.35 horizontal support is needed to offset the near-term positive outlook.

The USD/MXN pair attracts some buying for the fourth successive day on Tuesday and maintains its bid tone through the early part of the European session. The pair steadily climbs back above the 19.00 mark and remains well within the striking distance of over a one-month top touched on Monday.

Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone, the technical setup favours bullish traders. That said, the overnight failures to find acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 2022-March 2023 downfall warrant caution. This makes it prudent to wait for a convincing break through the said confluence barrier before positioning for any further appreciating move.

The USD/MXN pair could then aim to surpass the February monthly swing high, around the 19.30 region and climb to the 50% Fibo. level, around the mid-19.00s. The upward trajectory could get extended towards testing the 19.75-19.80 horizontal support breakpoint, which now coincides with the 61.8% Fibo. level and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing breakthrough will set the stage for an extension of the recent strong recovery move from sub-18.00 levels, or a multi-year low touched last week.

On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 18.65 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 18.35 horizontal support. Sustained weakness below will suggest that a one-week-old uptrend has run out of steam and make the USD/MXN pair vulnerable to retesting the 18.00-17.90 support zone.

USD/MXN daily chart

Key levels to watch