USD/JPY bears attack 133.00 despite steady yields as Credit Suisse turmoil appears far from over

• USD/JPY clings to mild losses as market sentiment remains sour despite latest consolidation.
• Yields stabilize near multi-day low as policymakers rush to tame financial market fears.
• Upbeat Japan data, challenges for hawkish central bank moves due to Credit Suisse crisis also weaken the Yen pair.
• Risk catalysts, bond market moves eyed for clear directions.

USD/JPY fades late Wednesday’s corrective bounce off a one-month low as it prints mild losses around 133.00, down for the second consecutive day during early Thursday.

In doing so, the Yen pair ignores the latest inaction of the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the global policymakers’ efforts to placate the financial market fears emanating from the Credit Suisse crisis. The reason could be linked to the upbeat Japan data and less confidence in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish bias.

Japan’s Machinery Orders for January, 9.5% MoM versus 1.8% expected and 1.6% prior, joins an improvement in Merchandise Trade Balance Total of ¥-897.7B compared to ¥-1,069.4B analysts’ estimations and ¥-3,498.6B previous readings to weigh on the USD/JPY pair.

Elsewhere, Reuters’ headlines suggesting that Credit Suisse eyes borrowing up to CHF50 billion from SNB to strengthen liquidity gain major attention and allow USD/JPY bears to take a breather. On the same line could be the news that anonymous sources conveyed that the US banks are less vulnerable to the Credit Suisse debacle. Furthermore, the emergency talks by the Bank of England (BoE) and market chatters suggesting no immediate negative reaction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and ECB, during their monetary policy meetings, also seem to tame the previous risk aversion.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures rise half a percent to reverse the previous day’s losses around 3,940 whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields stabilize around 3.49% after falling the most in four months on Wednesday. That said, the two-year Treasury bond coupons also pause the further downside around 3.96%, after falling to the lowest levels since September 2022.

Moving forward, Japan’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will precede the second-tier US data concerning employment, manufacturing and housing activities to direct intraday moves of the USD/JPY pair. Though, headlines surrounding Credit Suisse, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, as well as the bond market’s reaction to the same, will be crucial for clear directions.

Technical analysis

50-DMA puts a floor under the USD/JPY prices around 132.50 amid bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the Yen pair.