Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD tests $22.00 but dived below the 200-DMA after US data

• Silver price dropped sharply recently, following solid US jobs and housing data.
• The ECB surprised the markets with a 50 bps hike; the following meetings are live.
• XAG/USD Price Analysis: To remain downward biased, below $21.80.

Silver price fluctuates between gains and losses after hitting a daily high of $22.08, erasing some of its earlier gains. The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised the markets with a 50 bps lift, amidst a turmoil period in the financial markets, with Credit Suisse (CS) at the brisk of defaulting. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD exchanges hands at $21.54.

Unemployment claims in the US dropped, warranting further action by the Fed

Sentiment remains fragile, with most global equities dropping except the Nasdaq 100. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 50 basis points (bps) and stated that inflation remains too high. However, the statement did not provide forward guidance regarding future monetary policy decisions.

The US economic docket revealed that unemployment claims, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), eased below the 200K mark, a sign of the labor market tightness. Initial Jobless Claims rose by 192K vs. 205K, estimated by market participants. At the same time, housing data, led by Housing Starts and Building Permits, exceeded estimates, showing the economy’s resilience despite Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle.

The greenback remains under pressure, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY), down 0.26% at 104.478. US Treasury bond yields are recovering some ground, with 2s up 13 bps at 4.019%. On the contrary, the 10-year benchmark note rate is 3.432%, down two bps, a tailwind for XAG/USD.

What to watch?

The US economic calendar will feature Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer sentiment.

XAG/USD Technical analysis

The XAG/USD reached for two straight days the $22.00 mark but failing to hold to gains showed sellers’ commitment to keeping the price below the figure. Why? Because after the two attempts, the XAG/USD dropped below the confluence of daily Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), particularly the 200-day at $21.78. therefore the path of least resistance is downwards. The XAG/USD first support would be $21.50, followed by the 20-day EMA at $21.29, and then the figure at $21. Alternatively, a daily close above $22.00 could pave the way for further upside.