USD/CAD struggles to break 1.3740 barriers amid market uncertainty

• Market absorbs aftermath of Fed meeting, impacting USD/CAD.
• Investors foresee a halt in Fed rate hikes and rate reduction by 2023 end.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen reassures bank deposit safety.

Since the Federal Reserve(Fed) meeting, the USD/CAD has experienced continuous choppy price action, with the US Dollar remaining indecisive as market forces have yet to determine a clearer direction for the greenback. On Thursday, US Initial Jobless Claims were released, coming in at 191K, compared to the previous 192K and an expected 197K. These figures remain close to 200K, suggesting firmer labor conditions.

Following the FOMC meeting and comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the market has leaned towards significant dovish repricing and anticipates a pause in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate hiking path. By the end of 2023, the market expects a 100 basis point (bps) rate cut from the Fed, due to gloomy banking concerns and a cautious approach from the central bank.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has taken charge of commentary amid the ongoing banking crisis, reassuring investors of a safe and sound US banking system. She has reiterated her preparedness to take further action if necessary to protect the US banking system.

Despite the backstop provided by the US Treasury Department and a dovish FOMC, US indices have failed to capitalize and remain in choppy conditions. Amid this jittery sentiment, oil prices struggle to find a clear direction, fluctuating between gains and losses. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm informed lawmakers that refilling the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would be challenging this year and could take several years.

Geopolitical factors are also not improving risk sentiment, as US Defense Secretary Austin noted that the meeting between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin sent a troubling signal.

On the economic data front, Friday's US calendar will feature Durable Goods, S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), and Canadian retail sales data for January, all set to be released.

Levels to watch