Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pierces above key $2,000 level on US Dollar weakness

• Gold price bulls come alive and push XAU/USD back above the $2,000 mark.
• US Dollar and Treasury yields fall to a new low, supporting Gold’s comeback. 
• Central banks to increase their Gold reserves due to geopolitical concerns, says report.

XAU/USD price has broken back up above the $2,000 level after dip-buying in the $1,960 vicinity on Thursday led to the start of a new leg higher for the precious metal. Falling Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar supported Gold’s uptrend. The release of Durable Goods Orders and PMI data later on Friday could dictate the metal’s next move.  

US Dollar sinks to new monthly low before recovery

Markets tick over with no one major theme driving price action. The Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered from new monthly lows set on Thursday in the 101.90s, forming a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily chart suggestive of a reversal after March’s sharp decline. Without a strong bullish confirmation day to back it up, however, it’s still too early to say. If the US Dollar does start to reverse higher, however, it will be a negative factor for XAU/USD.

The next data release to impact the US Dollar is likely to be Durable Goods Orders on Friday, at 12:30 GMT, followed by the US Manufacturing and Services PMI at 13:45 GMT. The Federal Reserve’s James Bullard is also scheduled to speak at 13:30 GMT, and his views on inflation and the future trajectory of rates may also impact prices.

Central banks diversify into Gold

Central banks in parts of the world not aligned to the West are ‘de-Dollarising’ due to geopolitical polarization and diversifying into Gold instead, according to a recent report by French bank Société Générale. 

“The longer the Russia-Ukraine conflict endures, the faster countries not aligned with the West will be willing to isolate themselves from the USD. This will encourage central banks to continue their strong Gold purchases,” says the report. 

“The central banks of non-aligned countries should continue to de-Dollarise their portfolios and keep buying Gold (6% of our allocation, unchanged) which, at a later stage, will be backed by lower real yields,” Soc Gen adds.

Gold gently pulls back after breaking above key $2,000 level

XAU/USD trades at $1,988 at the time of writing. It is in an uptrend on a medium and short-term basis, so bullish bets are favored. On Thursday it breached above the key $2,000 psychological mark for the first time since Monday when markets went bananas over the demise of Credit Suisse. Overnight it has undergone a gentle pullback and may now be said to be in what traders call the ‘buy zone’. 

Gold price: 4-hour Chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is supporting the current recovery climate and rising more or less in line with price, showing no bearish divergence. 

A break above Thursday’s high of $2,003 would help provide confirmation of the next move up to the next resistance cap at Monday’s $2,009 highs where a confluence of technical levels presents a tough ceiling. A decisive break and close above $2,010 would be the breakthrough that is really necessary to invigorate bulls to continue the uptrend to new heights.