WTI optimists target $70 mark amid encouraging development in banking sectors

• WTI oil prices surge as banking concerns ease and geopolitical tension rise.
• Russian crude inventories drive tactical production cuts amid escalating European tensions.
• Financial market sentiment and geopolitics are likely to shape oil market volatility. 

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price is surging towards the $70 mark as investors ease some concern about ongoing banking adversity. Some rapid efforts from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury Department, have boosted confidence. As a result, risk appetite remains firm. On this positive development, oil prices have rebounded from the $67 mark.

Oil markets are closely watching the sentiment in the financial market, while oil fundamentals remain sidelined. The oil market has been reflecting the financial market volatility for the past several days.

The pullback from the $67 mark is likely driven by the US Dollar weakness, and for the oil price to break sustainably above the $70 mark, it will require a strong fundamental driver, such as the banking crisis dissipating fully.

Some confidence-boosting commentary from United States officials is keeping a lid on the US Dollar safe-haven demands.

Oil prices have also received some support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments that he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe over Ukraine. It is quite obvious that further escalation on the Russia-Ukraine front implies higher oil prices. Although NATO and the United States both have condemned it and attributed such a move as "dangerous and irresponsible."

A tactical move from Russia to cut oil production can be attributed to the understanding that Russian crude inventories have been rising since September last year, and the country would likely want to avoid further stock builds. If Russia wants to draw down the inventories that it has built, output cuts may need to be extended beyond June.

Despite lots of activity on the fundamental forefront of oil, oil prices have been unable to reach the levels desired by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). For the time being, until the banking turmoil is resolved, oil prices will likely take cues from risk sentiment. As various factors continue to influence the global economy, investors and market participants will keep a close eye on developments in both financial and oil markets, as well as geopolitical tensions, to make informed decisions.

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