US: UoM Consumer Confidence Index drops from 67.0 to 62.0 in March vs. 63.2 expected

• March UoM Consumer Confidence Index revised lower to 62.0 from 63.4 flash estimate.
• Limited impact from turmoil in the banking sector.
• DXY up 0.09% for the day, off highs.

Consumer sentiment in the US weakened in March more than what was previously reported, according to the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence report. The Consumer Sentiment Index was revised from the flash estimate of 63.4 to 62.0 in March, against the market expectation of 63.2.  Current Economic Conditions fell from 70.7 in February to 66.3 and the Index of Consumer Expectations declined from 64.7 to 59.2.

“This month’s turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Overall, our data revealed multiple signs that consumers increasingly expect a recession ahead”, said Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director.

Regarding inflation, year-ahead expectations “receded from 4.1% in February to 3.6%, the lowest reading since April 2021, but remained well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.” Five-year expectations came in at 2.9% for the fourth consecutive month.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index is rising modestly on Friday. It started to move off highs after the US Core PCE March report and it has been trending lower afterwards. As of writing trades at 102.25.