Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects from $24.00 as USD Index shows recovery, US Employment eyed

• Silver price has failed to reclaim the immediate resistance of $24.00.
• The USD Index has built an intermediate cushion around 102.00 amid hawkish commentary from Fed Cook.
• The release of the US Employment data will provide clear guidance for May's monetary policy.

Silver price (XAG/USD) has corrected marginally after failing to surpass the $24.00 resistance in the Asian session. The white metal has shown a modest decline amid the recovery move displayed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). After building a cushion around 102.00, the USD Index has rebounded to near 102.15, however, the downside looks favored in hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would choose a steady stance on interest rates in its May monetary policy meeting.

S&P500 futures are looking to recover the entire losses generated in early Asia. The overall market mood is cheerful therefore the demand for risk-perceived assets is healthy. The 10-year US Treasury yields have rebounded marginally to near 3.43% ahead of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (March) data, which will release on Wednesday. As per the consensus, the US economy has added 205K jobs in March vs. the prior release of 242K.

Lower labor additions after a downbeat US ISM Manufacturing PMI will bolster the need for a pause in the policy-tightening spell by the Fed. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, more than 50% of investors are still anticipating one more 25 basis points (bps) rate hike to 5.00-5.25%. However, a big shuffle is expected after the release of the Employment data.

US Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook on Monday said that the US has low unemployment and high inflation. Thus, the Fed is currently focused on inflation and the disinflationary process is underway, but we are not there yet. The commentary has provided some cushion to the US Dollar.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price has dropped after observing a restricted upside near the previous week's high at $24.16 on an hourly scale. The white metal has slipped below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.00, which indicates that the short-term trend has turned bearish. The asset is expected to find a cushion near Monday’s low at $23.58.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates a loss in the upside momentum.

Silver hourly chart