AUD/USD extends post-RBA loss to 0.6750 on firmer USD, US Factory Orders, Lowe’s speech eyed

• AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, reverses the biggest daily gain since January.
• Sour sentiment, light calendar and RBA’s pause to rate hike trajectory favor Aussie pair sellers.
• US-China, Russia-Europe headlines can join US Factory Orders to entertain AUD/USD traders.
•  RBA’s Lowe, US Treasury bond yields will be crucial for clear directions.

AUD/USD takes offers to renew intraday low near 0.6755 as it stretches the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) induced losses amid the early hours of Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies the central bank’s dovish play, as well as takes clues from the downbeat sentiment and a corrective bounce of the US Dollar.

After 10 consecutive rate increases, the RBA announced the status quo of its current monetary policy with the benchmark rate being 3.60% at the latest. In doing so, the Australian central bank justifies the recent downside of Australian inflation and Retail Sales data while also saying, “Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed.”

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 102.20 after falling the most since March 22 on Monday. The DXY’s latest rebound could be linked to the pause in the benchmark US Treasury bond yields’ previous fall. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields lick their wounds around 3.42% and 3.98% after printing a four-day and two-day downtrend in that order.

Apart from the RBA moves and US Dollar’s rebound, risks emanating from China and Russia also exert downside pressure on the AUD/USD price due to the pair’s risk barometer status.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov raised fears of escalating Moscow-Brussels tussle by saying, “The European Union (EU) has "lost" Russia.” The policymaker also added that Moscow will deal with Europe in a tough fashion if need be. That said, China’s Consulate General in Los Angeles spokesperson conveyed their dislike for a meeting between Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on early Tuesday.

Additionally teasing AUD/USD sellers are mixed concerns about the OPEC+ move’s impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next action as hawkish bets recede. Late on Monday, US President Joe Biden shrugged off the OPEC+ move and said that it is not as bad as you think. However, US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, as well as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen flagged fears of higher inflation and challenges to global growth. While portraying the market’s bets on the Fed, the CME’s FedWatch Tool marks nearly 42% market bets on the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike in May, versus 52% flashed on Friday.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures pause a four-day uptrend near the highest levels since February 16 but remain sluggish while depicting the market’s mood.

Looking forward, US Factory Orders for February, expected -0.5% versus -1.6% prior, may entertain intraday AUD/USD traders ahead of Wednesday’s speech from RBA Governor Philip Lowe. Should Governor Lowe resist accepting the dovish bias, the Aussie pair may witness a corrective bounce.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD bears remain hopeful unless the quote stays below a convergence of the 200-day EMA and an upward-sloping resistance line from mid-March, around 0.6820 by the press time. Even so, a daily closing below the 100-day EMA level of 0.6770 becomes necessary for the Aussie pair to suggest the quote’s further downside.