EUR/USD fades the initial drop to 1.0960 ahead of Lagarde

• EUR/USD drops and bounces off 1.0960 region.
• The dollar extends Friday’s optimism into the new week.
• Chair Lagarde speaks later in the European afternoon.

EUR/USD starts the week slightly on the defensive and manages to rebound from earlier lows near 1.0960.

EUR/USD focuses on ECB, data

EUR/USD retargets the key 1.1000 barrier on the back of the continuation of the recovery in the dollar, while the price action in the risk complex appears subdued ahead of the opening bell in the old continent on Monday.

In the meantime, German 10-year yields navigate the upper end of the range and remain underpinned by the persistent hawkish narrative among ECB’s rate setters, which opened the door to a 50 bps rate hike at the May meeting.

Still around the ECB, a recent survey by news agency Bloomberg sees the bank’s policy rate peaking around 3.75% in July.

In the domestic calendar, ECB Chair C. Lagarde speaks in New York, while Board members McCaul and Tuominen are also due to speak later in the session.

Across the pond, the NY Empire State Index, the NAHB Index and TIC Flows are all scheduled on Monday.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD keeps receding from recent tops in the proximity of 1.1100 during last week on the back of some corrective upside in the dollar.

In the meantime, price action around the single currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the incipient Fed-ECB divergence when it comes to the banks’ intentions regarding the potential next moves in interest rates.

Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continue to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region.

Key events in the euro area this week: Italy Final Inflation Rate, ECB Lagarde (Monday) – Germany, EMU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday) - EMU Final Inflation Rate (Wednesday) – ECB Accounts, EMU Flash Consumer Confidence (Thursday) – Advanced Manufacturing/Services PMIs (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation (or not) of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.0994 and a break above 1.1075 (2023 high April 14) would target 1.1100 (round level) en route to 1.1184 (weekly high March 21 2022). On the flip side, the next support comes at 1.0788 (monthly low April 3) followed by 1.0756 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.0712 (low March 24).