USD/CAD Price Analysis: Struggles at 1.3400, though retraces and stays above the 200-DMA

• The USD/CAD lasted two days and was capped at 1.3400 as USD/CAD sellers piled on that area.
• If USD/CAD buyers reclaim 1.3400, a move towards the 100-day EMA at 1.3500 is on the cards.

The USD/CAD rally was short-lived to just two days, but the pair remains above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the neutral bias remains intact. At the time of typing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3389, below the 1.3400 figure, after hitting a high of 1.3399.

USD/CAD Price Action

The USD/CAD is neutrally biased, though tilted to the downside, as the exchange rate is some ten pips shy of cracking below the 200-day EMA at 1.3377. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bearish territory but shifted flat, while the Rate of Change (RoC) is about to turn neutral. Therefore, the path of least resistance in the near term could be downwards.

If USD/CAD tumbles below the 200-day EMA, the next support would be the April 14 swing low at 1.3300. A breach of the latter, and the USD/CAD pair will challenge the YTD low at 1.3262 before sliding towards the November 15 daily low at 1.3225, before threatening 1.3200.

On the flip side, if USD/CAD breaks above 1.3400, a rally toward the 20-day EMA At 1.3478 is on the cards, ahead of challenging the 100-day EMA at 1.3500. If buyers reclaim that area, nothing will be on the way toward the 50-day EMA at 1.3523, ahead of testing 1.3600.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Technical Levels