Fed to emphasize disinflation has been evolving slower than expected – TDS

Previewing this week's key events and data releases from the United States (US), analysts at TD Securities noted that they expect the US central bank to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps).

US payrolls likely slowed for a third consecutive month

"We anticipate that post-meeting communication will: (i) emphasize that disinflation has been evolving slower than expected, leaving open the possibility of additional tightening, and (ii) acknowledge the more uncertain economic environment, especially with regard to credit conditions post SVB collapse."

"US payrolls likely slowed for a third consecutive month to a still firm pace in April, though the slowest since 2020. We also look for the UE rate to rise to 3.6%, and wage growth to print 0.3% m/m."

"Surveys already released point to a small rebound for both the ISM manufacturing and services indexes in April following their twin declines in March to 46.3 and 51.2, respectively. We look for the ISM manufacturing index to advance modestly to a less dire level at 47.5. The services index likely rose as well but to 52.2, indicating a modest improvement in the pace of expansion for the sector."