AUD/JPY eases below 92.00 after Aussie Q1 Retail Sales, BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech

• AUD/JPY retreats from one-week high, prods four-day winning streak after downbeat Aussie data.
• Australia’s Q1 Retail Sales drop to -0.6% QoQ versus -0.4% market forecasts and -0.2% prior.
• Japan’s Household Spending drops the most since March 2022, real wages also ease in March.
• BoJ Governor Ueda’s defense of easy money policy, upbeat yields also favor risk-barometer pair.

AUD/JPY bulls take a breather at the highest levels in a week, pausing a four-day uptrend around 91.60 by the press time, as downbeat Australia data weigh on the cross-currency pair during early Tuesday.

That said, Australia’s first quarter (Q1) Retail Sales shrank 0.6% versus -0.4% market forecasts and -0.2% prior readings. Earlier in the day, Westpac Consumer Confidence for May slumps to -1.7% versus 9.4% prior and weighed n the AUD/JPY prices.

However, downbeat Japan data and dovish commentary from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, as well as risk-positive statements from Japan’s Finance Minister (FinMin) Shunichi Suzuki, puts a floor under the prices of the cross-currency pair.

BoJ’s Ueda said, “Our scheduled review won't have any pre-set idea in mind on specific monetary policy move.” The policymaker also added that the BoJ will take necessary policy action at each meeting, with an eye on financial and price developments, even while conducting the review. On the other hand, Japan FinMin Suzuki confirmed that the nation’s financial system is stable.

Not only statements from Japanese policymakers but downbeat data from the Asian major also weighed on the Japanese Yen (JPY). That said, Japan’s Household Spending marked the biggest fall since March 2022 with -1.9% YoY figure for March, versus the expected +0.4% and prior +1.6%. Further, the nation’s Inflation Adjusted (Real) Wages for the said month also eased to -2.9% YoY during the said month compared to -2.4% market forecasts and -2.9% previous readings.

Additionally favoring the bulls could be the upbeat US Treasury bond yields and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish bias, versus the BoJ’s defense of easy-money policy.

Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the downbeat Aussie data, the AUD/JPY pair traders should pay attention to the risk catalysts and Australia budget statement, up for publishing at 09:00 AM GMT, for clear directions.

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of a downward-sloping resistance line from late October 2022, now immediate support near 91.15, keeps AUD/JPY buyers hopeful of crossing the 200-DMA hurdle, close to 92.10 by the press time.