GBP/USD aptly portrays pre-BoE anxiety near 1.2630 immediate hurdle on “Super Thursday”

• GBP/USD remains indecisive as the key Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision looms.
• Quarterly BoE report will be watched closely as inflation pressures British policymakers to stays hawkish despite economic woes.
• Terminal Rate, growth/inflation forecasts appear critical as BoE’s 0.25% rate hike seems already priced in.
• US PPI, risk catalysts also become important as Cable pair prods 13-month high.

GBP/USD retreats from intraday high while slipping back to 1.2620 as it inks the market’s cautious mood ahead of the all-important Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. With this, the Pound Sterling pair remains unchanged on a day, printing three-day indecision of traders, heading into the London open on “Super Thursday”.

The Cable pair rose to a fresh high since April 2022 the previous day following downbeat US inflation data. However, the pre-BoE consolidation joined the US Dollar’s corrective bounce to prod the GBP/USD pair’s latest moves.

Earlier in the day, an improvement in the UK’s RICS House Price Balance for April, to -39% from -43% and -40% expected, joined hawkish forecasts from the UK think-tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) to favor the GBP/USD buyers.

“NIESR estimated annual consumer price inflation will be 5.4% in the final quarter of 2023 - well above forecasts from the Bank of England and the government's budget watchdog,” reported Reuters.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 101.45 after posting the biggest daily loss in a week as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 4.9% YoY for April versus market expectations of reprinting the 5.0% mark, being the first below 5.0% print in two years. It should be noted that cautious optimism in the market, portrayed by mildly bid stock futures and downbeat US Treasury bond yields, underpin the US Dollar’s corrective bounce ahead of more clues of the US inflation, especially amid downbeat China CPI and hopes of Sino-American diplomatic talks.

Given the above 10% UK inflation and the Fed’s dovish rate hike, the GBP/USD is likely to remain firmer even if the Old Lady, as the BoE is informally known, fails to suggest strong rate hikes for the future. With this in mind, Goldman Sachs said, “UK inflation on track to fall rapidly, helped by cooling global energy prices (but) was unlikely to drop enough to meet the BoE’s 2% target.”

Moving forward, GBP/USD traders will keep their eyes on the BoE’s quarterly monetary policy report as the Old Lady’s 0.25% rate hike expectations appear mostly priced in. In doing so, the British economic growth and inflation forecasts, as well as the central bank’s peak Terminal Rate, will be closely observed for clear directions.

Also read: Bank of England Preview: Bailey to break Pound's rally with reluctance to raise rates further

Apart from the BoE-linked moves, the Pound Sterling pair will also be affected by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, expected to ease to 2.4% YoY.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD rebounds from the resistance-turned-support line stretched from early April, around 1.2600 at the latest. The Cable pair’s recovery moves, however, need validation from the weekly resistance line, around 1.2635 by the press time. 

Also read: GBP/USD Price Analysis: Cable turns defensive above 1.2600 on BoE “Super Thursday”