S&P500 Futures rebound, yields struggle even as US debt ceiling expiry, PMIs loom

• Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as US policymakers fail to offer debt ceiling deal but stay hopeful of avoiding default.
• Hawkish Fed bets, Sino-American jitters are extra filters for trading amid a sluggish session.
• First readings of May’s PMIs, risk catalysts will be crucial for clear directions.

Risk profile remains dicey during early Tuesday even as the US policymakers fail to agree on pushing back to looming debt ceiling expiration in their latest round of negotiations ended before a few hours. The reason could be linked to their hopes of avoiding the US default, as well as the market’s anxiety ahead of the preliminary readings of the May month activity data for the key economies.

While portraying the mood, S&P500 Futures remain mildly bid near 4,220, up for the second consecutive day as it reverses Friday’s pullback from a nine-month high. With the upbeat US stock Futures, the benchmark 10-year and two-year US Treasury bond yields pause a five-day uptrend at the highest levels in two months whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) grinds higher past 103.00 during the two-day uptrend, close to 103.30 by the press time.

US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy failed to offer a deal to avoid the debt ceiling expiry during the latest negotiations but the policymakers remain hopeful of reaching an agreement to avoid the US default. “I just concluded a productive meeting with Speaker McCarthy about the need to prevent default,” said US President Joe Biden per the White House announcements shared by Reuters late Monday. On the other hand, US House Speaker McCarthy said that meeting with Biden was productive but no debt ceiling deal.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve (Fed) Officials highlight inflation woes to defend the rate hike trajectory and push back the policy pivot talks. That said Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari favored the rate hike trajectory while citing the fears of the US default and banking crisis, which in turn allowed the US Dollar to remain firmer. On the same line, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard ruled out the recession concerns on Monday while saying that He sees two more rate hikes this year before reaching the base rate. Furthermore, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and San Francisco President Mary C Daly recently backed the calls for higher rates.

Elsewhere, US officials recently mentioned that they’re working directly with China on the Micron issue. Beijing banned chips from US manufacturer Micron, after terming them a security threat, which in turn gave rise to a situation where Washington and Beijing exchanged harsh words.

While the mixed sentiment and cautious optimism allow the market players to remain hopeful, the first readings of Purchasing Managers Indexes for May for the UK, Euro, Japan, Australia and the US will be crucial to watch for intraday direction. Given the upbeat PMIs, the US Dollar may witness further upside and can challenge the commodities and Antipodeans.

Also read: US S&P Global PMIs Preview: Dollar set to rise on a slip in the services sector