Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD dives amid stalled US debt-ceiling talks as the USD strengthens

• Gold price hits resistance at 50-day EMA of $1976.47, retraces as US Congress and the White House fail to progress on fiscal talks.
• US Dollar Index (DXY) advances 0.25% amid the stalemate, rising above its 200-day EMA for the first time since March 15, 2023, as XAU/USD slips.
• Traders await the release of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes after a dovish rate hike in May.

Gold price faces solid resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1976.47, retraces some of its earlier gains after hitting a daily high of $1985.27. Talks between the US Congress and the White House (WH) failed to provide any relief; hence market participants are triggering toward safe-haven assets, not being Gold one of them. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1969.20, down by 0.20%.

Political uncertainty triggers flows toward safety, bolstering the US Dollar

Wall Street continues to print losses as sentiment remains dented by the political uncertainty in the United States (US). Several reports on Tuesday updated that talks between President Biden and US House Speaker McCarthy did not make much progress. Divisions are seen in spending cuts proposed by the Republicans, while the White House is pushing for more taxes as part of the agreement.

Recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “It is hard to be precise exactly which day we will run out of resources,” on Wednesday, as reported by Reuters. The former Fed Chair Yellen added that her office would try to increase the level of precision on the date the US Government will rule out of money.

Before Wall Street opened, XAU/USD rallied towards its daily high above $1985 just to see those gains evaporate as the greenback is staging a comeback, propelled by US bond yields. US real yields are climbing, standing at 1.449%, as shown by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), while the 10-year benchmark note yields 3.709%, up one bps.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of its rivals, advance 0.25%, up at 103.776, above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since March 15, 2023.

XAU/USD traders will focus on the release of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes at around 18:00 GMT, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a dovish rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) at its May 2-3 meeting. Traders would scrutinize the minutes, looking for clues about Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Co’s forward path.

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

XAU/USD is still neutral-biased, though a daily close below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) can open the door for further weakness. However, sellers are still pending from breaking below the $1950 psychological level, tested three times in the last five trading days, with Gold sellers unable to drag prices toward the 100-day EMA at $1933.84. In that outcome, the next support would be the $1900 mark. Otherwise, Gold’s daily close above $1977 will keep buyers hopeful of a re-test of the $2000 figure.