EUR/JPY retakes the 150.00 zone amid weak Japanese economic data

• EUR/JPY jumped above the zone hitting a daily high of 150.35.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) from Japan came in at -0.70%  (MoM) in May, below the consensus.
• Machine Tool Orders contracted by 22.00% (YoY) in the same month.

The EUR/JPY traded with gains on Monday after the Producer Price Index (PPI) from Japan was reported to fall to its lowest point since June 2021 and Machine Tool Orders contracted by 22% YoY. In that sense, dovish bets ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on Friday, and rising US bond yields are weakening the Yen. On the Euro’s side, nothing relevant will be published on Monday, and attention turns to inflation data on Tuesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on Thursday.

Weak Japanese data fueled dovish bets on BoJ

Producer Price Index (PPI), from Japan, contracted by 0.7% MoM in May vs the 0.2% decline expected, and the annualized rate stands at 5.1%. A different report showed that the Machine Tool Orders from May contracted by 22%.

In that sense, weak economic data and inflation decelerating make investors expect a more dovish stance taken by Governor Ueda and his fellow policymakers implying a preference for accommodative monetary policies. That being said, according to WIRP (World Interest Rate Possibilities),  the chances of a policy liftoff this week are estimated to be less than 10%, but the likelihood increases to around 10% in July, 25% in September, 40% in October, and 55% in December.

For Tuesday’s session, investors will eye the release of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from May from Germany with its headline figure expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 6.3% YoY. 

EUR/JPY levels to watch

From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY suggests a neutral to bullish outlook for the short term. Despite the bull’s struggles for dominance, technical indicators continue to be favourable, implying the potential for further upside.

Upcoming resistance for EUR/JPY is seen at the 150.50 level, followed by the 151.00 area and the multi-year high at 151.60. On the other hand, the psychological mark at 150.00 remains the key support level for EUR/JPY. If broken, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 149.60 and 149.00 area could come into play.

EUR/JPY daily chart