Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD breakout could be on the cards around key US events

• Gold price is jammed in a coil and traders await key US events. 
• The US CPI and Fed are critical events for Gold price this week. 

The Gold price is flat ahead of key events that are taking place today and Wednesday on the US calendar. With all eyes on Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, shorts in gold were recently covered on profit-taking following the blockbuster Nonfarm Payrolls jobs report.  At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1,958 and remains coiled between a triangle formation on the charts as the technical analysis shows below. 

''For Gold price traders,'' analysts at TD Securities said, ''it is becoming increasingly apparent that participants are acknowledging that we are at 'near-terminal rates', which constrains the bearish case.''

''Still,'' the analysts said, ''discretionary traders are shying away from deploying their capital hoard into Gold, in line with the market's recent pricing out of cuts on a 12m forward basis.''

''However,'' they explained, ''this occurred in response to strong lagging indicators, whereas leading economic indicators still suggest that pricing for cuts should firm on this horizon, which should ultimately support discretionary trader positioning in the yellow metal. CTA trend followers have recently shed some length, which is increasingly limiting the implications of a surprise hike this meeting.''

Meanwhile, Fed tightening expectations have fallen ahead of the FOMC decision Wednesday. ''WIRP suggests only 60% odds of a 25 bp hike, rising to nearly 100% for the May 2-3 meeting,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said. ''We believe the ECB showed the way forward and so the Fed should follow suit and hike rates despite ongoing tensions in the banking system. Only that one 25 bp hike is priced in, while three 25 bp rate cuts are still priced in by year-end. With inflation still running hot, we do not think an easing cycle will be seen this year.'' 

Eyes on the banking crisis

Besides the US calendar, the UBS deal to take over Credit Suisse is in focus. The Fed along with five other central banks announced a coordinated move to boost liquidity in their existing USD swap arrangements. ''While these developments might help quell some concerns, we think First Republic likely remains under the microscope and until its situation has been resolved, markets are likely to remain extremely unsettled,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said. 

Gold technical analysis

The price is trapped between key breakout support and resistance as illustrated in the daily and 4-hour charts above. The events this week may have the power to move the needle one way or the other.