WTI struggles to cheer US Dollar weakness below $68.00 amid China woes, inflation concerns

• WTI crude oil pares the biggest daily loss in a fortnight at the lowest levels in five weeks.
• US Dollar suffers from dovish Fed bets ahead of US inflation.
• Fears of slower economic recovery in China gain momentum after PBoC rate cut.
• API inventories, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.

WTI crude oil picks up bids to print mild gains around $67.70 as it consolidates the biggest daily slump in two weeks amid early Tuesday. In doing so, the black gold recovers from the lowest levels since early May amid sluggish markets.

That said, the US Dollar’s weakness takes clues from the market’s heavy bets on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) inaction during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). That said, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than 70% chance of the Fed’s inaction on Wednesday while suggesting nearly 80% odds favoring the 0.25% rate increase in July.

Even so, fears of witnessing a hawkish halt from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and cautious mood before today’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May prod the market sentiment, as well as weigh on the Oil price. Recently, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said in an interview that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting. Previously, ex-Fed vice chair Richard Clarida came out with comments that it may be more difficult to get inflation near 2% than in the past 15 years. Further, “Expect a hawkish skip this week,” Former President of Boston Federal Reserve Bank, Eric Rosengren, tweeted early Monday.

Additionally, fears that China is losing economic momentum also weigh on the WTI price as Beijing is one of the world’s biggest energy consumers. People’s Bank of China (PBoC)  cuts the Repo Rate to 1.9% from 2.0% and confirms the previous fears suggesting slower economic growth in the world’s biggest industrial player. With this in mind, Bloomberg said, “China’s central bank cut a short-term policy interest rate, easing its monetary stance to help aid the economy’s recovery.”

Additionally, the market’s fears of more tension between the US and China escalate as the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to non-transparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.

Looking ahead, the US CPI data for May and private Oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be important to watch for energy traders.

Technical analysis

WTI crude oil’s recovery remains elusive unless the quote rises past the previous support line stretched from early May, around $68.40 by the press time.