Natural Gas Price Analysis: XNG/USD recovers to $2.35 on softer US Dollar as US inflation looms

• Natural Gas Price extends week-start rebound, grinds near intraday high of late.
• US Dollar suffers from dovish Fed bets, downbeat inflation expectations.
• Challenges to sentiment emanating from China prod XNG/USD bulls.
• US Core CPI, risk catalysts eyed amid hopes of US Dollar weakness and further Natural Gas Price recovery.

Natural Gas Price (XNG/USD) remains on the front foot around $2.34 as it makes rounds to intraday high while extending the previous day’s rebound from a one-week low ahead of Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the XNG/USD benefits from the softer US Dollar, as well as the market’s cautious optimism, as markets await the key US inflation numbers for May and the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.

US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a two-day uptrend with 0.20% intraday loss to near 103.43 by the press time. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies bears the burden of the downbeat bets on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

It should be noted that the recently softer US data and unimpressive Fed talks allow traders to remain dovish on the US central bank. While portraying the same, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than 70% chance of the Fed’s inaction on Wednesday while suggesting nearly 80% odds favoring the 0.25% rate increase in July.

.Apart from the US dollar weakness, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) rate cut and hopes of more energy demand due to the hot summer in the West also underpin the XNG/USD run-up.

Alternatively, the cautious mood ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures joins the latest US-China tension to weigh on the Natural Gas Price.

That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% is in the spotlight as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish. On the other hand, the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang and China vows to protect domestic firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. On the same line, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to non-transparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.

Technical analysis

Although the 10-DMA puts a floor under the Natural Gas Price near $2.31, downward-sloping resistance lines from late May, around $2.35 and $2.37, limit the XNG/USD rebound.