When is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held in June.

The Australian central bank surprised markets for the second consecutive time by announcing a 0.25% rate hike earlier in the month, after pausing its 10-time rate hike trajectory in April. The policymakers also tried to convince markets that they can defend the hawkish rate lift cycle but the traders fear proximity to the policy pivot, which in turn makes today’s RBA Minutes more important for the AUD/USD pair traders.

Apart from looking at the catalysts that helped RBA to surprise markets in the last monetary policy meetings, the prospects of the policy pivot and benefits from China stimulus will also be important for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch in today’s RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD picks up bids to 0.6855 while licking the wounds at the highest levels in four months, pausing the two-day downtrend, during early Tuesday morning in Asia. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays the market’s hopes of witnessing hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as well as upbeat moves of the People’s Bank of China.

That said, the RBA has already surprised the markets with its second back-to-back rate hike. As a result, the Aussie bulls seek more hawkish clues to aim for a July rate lift. It should be noted that the absence of major geopolitical disappointment from the latest round of the US-China talks also underpins the AUD/USD pair’s corrective bounce ahead of the key event. On the same line are the hopes of China’s more stimulus to propel economic recovery.

Given the recent divergence between the RBA and the Fed’s actions, today’s RBA Minutes will be closely watched for linkages on future moves of the Aussie central bank. Should the RBA manages to defend its recent hawkish play, as well as suggest some more in the pipeline, the AUD/USD prices may have further upside to trace.

Technically, the AUD/USD pair’s rejection of the three-week-old bullish channel, by a downside break of the channel’s support line of near 0.6885 at the latest, keeps the Aussie pair bears hopeful.

Key Notes

AUD/USD bears take a breather around mid-0.6800s with eyes on RBA Minutes, PBoC 

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears grind towards key 4-hour support

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.