GBP/USD struggles to justify hawkish BoE concerns below 1.2800, Fed bets, UK inflation eyed

• GBP/USD remains sidelined after reversing from 14-month high.
• Jump in UK government’s two-year borrowing cost propel hawkish BoE concerns.
• Fed talks, mixed US data lures Pound Sterling bears as full markets return.
• UK CPI, second-tier US data may entertain Cable traders ahead of BoE, Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony.

GBP/USD remains defensive near 1.2780 as it struggles to justify the hawkish concerns about the Bank of England (BoE) ahead of the UK’s inflation data. That said, the recently mixed concerns about the Federal Reserve (Fed) also prod the Pound Sterling traders as it struggles to extend the previous day’s U-turn from the highest levels since April 2022.

Earlier in the day, The Times came out with the news suggesting that the UK government’s two-year borrowing costs have risen above 5% for the first time in 15 years amid mounting expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lift interest rates again this week as it battles to contain inflation. The news also added that the Gilt yields, which move inversely to the British Pound prices, have soared in recent days as traders bet that Threadneedle Street will need to raise rates further and will keep them higher for longer than had been anticipated.

On the other hand, the Fed monetary policy report, presented late Friday to the US Congress, joins the recent comments from the Fed officials to favor the US Dollar bulls. That said, the Fed policy report for Congress said, “Inflation in the US is well above target and the labor market remains very tight,” as per Reuters. Among the Fed talkers, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller were the important ones who appeared a bit hawkish of late.

It’s worth noting that the fears of slower economic recovery in the UK join the US-China tension to weigh on the sentiment and put a floor under the US Dollar. While portraying the mood, S&P500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields grind near 3.82% and 4.75% respectively by the press time, after rising in the last two consecutive days.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar appears mostly empty for the UK on Tuesday but the return of the full markets and the US housing numbers may entertain the GBP/USD pair traders. Above all, Wednesday’s UK inflation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bi-annual Testimony will be the key to determining near-term Cable pair moves.

Technical analysis

Although the overbought RSI (14) line restricts immediate GBP/USD upside, the Cable pair bears need validation from the six-month-old resistance-turned-support line of around 1.2770-65.