USD/INR Price Analysis: Indian Rupee recovery hinges on clear break of 81.80

• USD/INR bears keep the reins at weekly low despite recent inaction.
• 10-week-old ascending support line, horizontal support zone challenge Indian Rupee bulls.
• Key SMAs, descending trend line from late May restrict immediate upside.
• Oscillators suggest limited downside room and highlight previous monthly lows.

USD/INR bears flirt with the short-term key supports around 81.90 amid the sluggish Asian session during early Thursday, mainly due to China’s holiday and cautious mood ahead of the key central bank announcements.

In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair holds onto the early-week U-turn from the 50-SMA amid the looming bear cross on the MACD.

It’s worth noting, however, that the below 50.0 RSI (14) line suggests bottom-picking of the USD/INR pair and hence highlight the ascending support line from April 14, as well as a 2.5-month-old horizontal support zone, respectively near 81.95 and around 81.85-80.

Hence, the USD/INR bears need validation from 81.80 to tighten the grip. Following that, the lows marked in May and April, close to 81.65 and 81.50 in that order, will be in the spotlight ahead of the yearly bottom of 80.88 marked in January.

On the flip side, USD/INR rebound needs validation from the 50-SMA hurdle of 82.10 to convince intraday buyers.

Even so, a downward-sloping trend line from late May and the 200-SMA can challenge the Indian Rupee sellers near 82.25 and 82.40.

Overall, USD/INR remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 82.40 but the downside room appears limited.

USD/INR: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited downside expected