EUR/USD Price Analysis: 100/200-hour SMAs confluence holds the key ahead of Fed’s Powell

• EUR/USD meets with some supply on Wednesday and is pressured by a modest USD strength.
• Any subsequent decline could find decent support near the 100/200-hour SMAs confluence.
• Traders now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments to grab some meaningful impetus.

The EUR/USD pair comes under some selling pressure during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from a fresh weekly high, around the 1.0975 region touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.0900s, down around 0.15% for the day, and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day winning streak.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook, along with the upbeat US macro data released on Tuesday, assist the US Dollar (USD) to regain positive traction, which, in turn, is seen dragging the EUR/USD pair lower. Apart from this, worries about economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs overshadow the prospects for additional rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) and undermine the shared currency. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra later today.

From a technical perspective, any subsequent decline is more likely to find decent support near the 1.0935-1.0930 confluence - comprising the 100-hour and the 200-hour Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The said area should act as a pivotal point, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling. The EUR/USD pair might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the 1.0900 round-figure mark and accelerate the fall towards testing last week's swing low, around the 1.0845 zone. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for additional near-term losses.

On the flip side, the 1.0975 region, or the weekly top, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 1.1000 psychological mark. Any subsequent move-up is likely to attract some sellers around the 1.1055-1.1060 resistance and remain capped near the 1.1090-1.1100 heavy supply zone, or the YTD peak touched in April/May. A sustained strength beyond the latter will confirm a fresh bullish breakout and allow the EUR/USD pair to build on its recent rise witnessed over the past month or so.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart

Key levels to watch