WTI consolidates recent gains around $71.00 as China data, sour sentiment prod Oil buyers

• WTI crude oil pares the biggest daily gains in a week amid downbeat mood.
• China Caixin Services PMI drops in June, fears of recession, Sino-American trade war intensify.
• Output cuts from Saudi Arabia, Russia provide headwinds to energy bears.
• Weekly prints of API Crude Oil Stocks Change, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.

WTI takes offers to reverse the previous day’s heavy gains near $71.00, down 0.50% intraday around the intraday low of $70.86 by the press time. In doing so, the black gold bears the burden of the downbeat China data, as well as challenges to sentiment, amid a sluggish Asian session on Wednesday.

That said, China’s Caixin Services PMI for June eased to 53.9 versus 57.1 prior. Earlier in the week, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.5 for the said month, versus 50.9 prior and 50.2 market forecasts. On the same line, China’s official PMIs for June also appeared less impressive and hence challenge the black gold price as Beijing is among the world’s top commodity users.

On a different page, the difference between the two-day and 10-year US Treasury bond yields widened to the most in 42 years and flagged recession fears on Monday, which in turn prod the Oil price. That said, the S&P00 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields remain mostly unchanged near 3.85% and 4.90% by the press time.

Furthermore, the latest developments about the US-China ties are risk-negative and exert additional downside pressure on the energy benchmark due to these countries' status as major oil users. Recently, China announced abrupt controls on exports of some gallium and germanium products, effective from August 1. The dragon nation’s latest retaliation is in reaction to the US curb on AI chips’ shipments to Beijing. On the same line, Chinese Former Vice Commerce Minister, Wei Jianguo, warned that “China's export control measures of chipmaking materials is just a start.”

Above all, Russia and Saudi Arabia’s readiness for further output cuts, as well as the US Dollar’s struggle to defend the latest run-up, keep the Oil buyers hopeful as markets await the weekly private inventory data, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the June meeting.

Technical analysis

A convergence of the five-week-old descending resistance line and 50-DMA, around $71.30 by the press time, restricts the immediate upside of the Crude Oil price.