Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims to recapture $1,930 as investors see single interest rate hike from Fed

• Gold price is aiming to recapture the crucial resistance of $1,930.00 amid sheer volatility in the USD Index.
• Upcoming quarterly result season is expected to keep US equities under pressure and a stock-selective action would be observed.
• Gold price has attempted a breakout of the downward-sloping trendline plotted from $2,079.76.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is looking to recapture the immediate resistance of $1,930.00 in the European session. The precious metal is having strength as investors are sticking to only one interest rate hike projection from the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the year-end.

S&P500 futures have posted significant losses in the London session as investors are cautious ahead of United States markets opening after a holiday due to Independence Day. In addition to that, the upcoming quarterly result season is expected to keep equities under pressure and a stock-selective action would be observed.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing volatile spikes around 103.00 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Investors would look for cues about interest rate guidance. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has started preparing investors for two more interest rate hikes this year. Therefore, relative uncertainty from FOMC minutes could remain shallow.

A volatile action in the Gold price would come after the release of June’s Employment data. According to the estimates, US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment report is expected to show a decline in the employment addition to 180K vs. the prior addition of 278K.

On Thursday, investors will also keep an eye on the ISM Services PMI data. This week, Manufacturing PMI continued its contraction spell straight for eight months.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price has attempted a breakout of the downward-sloping trendline plotted from May 03 high at $2,079.76 on a four-hour scale. A confirmed breakout would trigger the bullish reversal. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,922.30 is providing support to the Gold bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is looking to move into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. An occurrence of the same would trigger the upside momentum.

Gold four-hour chart