EUR/USD: A test of the 2023 high appears on the cards – UOB

24-hour view: We expected EUR to strengthen yesterday but we highlighted that “in view of the overbought conditions, June’s high near 1.1010 is unlikely to come under threat today”. We added, “In order to keep the momentum going, EUR must stay above 1.0925 (minor support is at 1.0945).” Our view turned out to be correct, as EUR dipped to 1.0942 and then rose to a high of 1.1001 in late NY trade. While conditions remain overbought, the EUR strength is not showing signs of easing just yet. Today, EUR is likely to break above 1.1010, but the next resistance at 1.1050 could be just out of reach. Support is at 1.0975, followed by 1.0950. 

Next 1-3 weeks: We turned positive in EUR yesterday (10 Jul, spot at 1.0965) and we noted, the level to watch is 1.1010, followed by 1.1050. EUR rose to a high of 1.1001 in NY trade, and upward momentum remains strong. Looking ahead, if EUR breaks above 1.1050, the next level to aim for is the year-to-date high of 1.1095. In order to maintain the buildup in momentum, EUR must not break below 1.0905 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.0870 yesterday).