USD/TRY braces for fresh all-time high past 26.00 as US Dollar bears take a breather ahead of mid-tier data

• USD/TRY picks up bids to reverse early-week retreat from all-time high, stays sidelined.
• Fears of CBRT rate hike jostle with receding concerns about hawkish Fed moves to restrict immediate Turkish Lira moves.
• Risk catalysts, US consumer-centric data eyed for clear directions

USD/TRY reverses the previous day’s losses while rising to 26.13 heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair justifies the US Dollar’s corrective bounce from the multi-day low amid sluggish trading hours ahead of mid-tier US consumer-centric data.

That said, the USD/TRY pair previously prod the bulls amid a reduction in the Turkish Unemployment Rate, to 9.5% in May from 10.2% prior, as well as due to the upbeat Industrial Production for May which improved to -0.2% YoY versus -1.2% previous readings.

Apart from that, the growing concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) nearness to the policy pivot, backed by downbeat US inflation clues, also allowed the USD/TRY pair to retreat from an all-time high.

Even so, the market’s latest consolidation ahead of the preliminary readings of July’s US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, as well as the Five-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, allows the US Dollar to pare the biggest weekly loss in eight months and favor the USD/TRY bulls. It should be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds from the April 2022 lows to 99.80 by the press time, snapping the six-day downtrend of late.

It should be noted that the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller joined mixed mood to underpin the USD/TRY rebound of late, via the US Dollar’s bounce.

That said, S&P500 Futures retreated from the yearly top whereas the US Treasury bond yields print mild gains around 3.78% and 4.65% by the press time, after refreshing a two-week low the previous day.

Above all, concerns that the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will last longer than expected, as well as downbeat Turkish statistics on a longer framework, keeps the USD/TRY bulls hopeful of witnessing a fresh record high.

Technical analysis

Despite the recent pick-up in the USD/TRY prices, the pair remains within a two-week-old trading range, between 25.82 and 26.16, which in turn suggests further inaction by the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair. However, the RSI (14) line remains firmer while the MACD indicator seems fading bearish bias of late, suggesting further upside of the quote.