AUD/USD retreats towards 0.6800 as RBA Minutes fail to impress Aussie bulls ahead of US Retail Sales

• AUD/USD reverses from intraday high after unimpressive RBA Minutes.
• RBA Minutes for July suggest policymakers’ readiness for August rate hike, if needed.
• Cautious optimism, US-China news joins pre-data positioning to underpin AUD/USD run-up.
• US Retail Sales, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions ahead of Thursday’s Aussie job reports.

AUD/USD reverses from the intraday high to around 0.6815 after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, published early Tuesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair fails to cheer the downbeat US Dollar, as well as the risk-positive headlines surrounding China.

As per the RBA’s July month Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, “board agreed some further tightening may be required,” adding that “they would reconsider at August meeting.” 

Also read: RBA Minutes: Board agreed some further tightening may be required, would reconsider at August meeting

With this, the Aussie pair pauses on the way to the 0.6900 upside hurdle amid cautious optimism in the market, backed by the hopes of improving the US-China ties and receding hawkish Feds. That said, Monday’s downbeat US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for July joined the previous week’s disappointing US inflation outcomes to weigh on the US Dollar and underpin cautious optimism in the market.

It should be noted that US Climate Envoy John Kerry is in China to mark another effort by the Washington to improve the Sino-US ties. That said, the US policymaker met China’s top diplomat Wang Yi during early Tuesday while saying, per Reuters, “Our hope is now that this could be the beginning of new cooperation to solve the differences between us.”

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to 99.76 while reversing Friday’s corrective bounce off the lowest level since April 2022 as the US statistics fail to inspire Fed hawks even as July rate hike is already given.

Amid these plays, S&P500 Futures appear indecisive while struggling to trace Wall Street’s gains whereas the US Treasury bond yields remain depressed and weigh on the US Dollar.

Looking ahead, US Retail Sales for June, expected to rise to 0.5% versus 0.3% prior, will be crucial to watch for clear directions of the AUD/USD. Also important will be the US Industrial Production for June, expected -0.1% versus -0.2% prior, as well as the US-China headlines and the bond market moves as Japan returns from a long weekend.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD bounces off the 5-DMA level immediate support, around 0.6820 by the press time, to restore a run-up targeting the 0.6900 hurdle comprising tops marked in June-July.