USD/TRY approaches 27.00 post-CBRT

• USD/TRY sets aside Wednesday’s pullback and resumes the upside.
• The CBRT came in short of expectations… once again.
• The central bank leaves the door open to further tightening.

There is no respite for the selling pressure around the Turkish lira, and this time is lifting USD/TRY to the boundaries of the key round level (another one) at 27.0000.

USD/TRY picks up pace on CBRT hike

USD/TRY seems to have broken above the multi-session consolidative phase that started in late June and now retargets the 27.0000 region on the back of the resumption of the downward bias in the lira.

On a weekly basis, the pair has so far closed with gains in every week since March, while the only month that saw a negative performance was November 2022, since January of that same year. YTD, the Turkish currency has depreciated nearly 45%.

The extra decline in the lira comes after the Turkish central bank (CBRT) hiked the One-Week Repo Rate by 250 bps to 17.50% vs. expectations for a 500 bps rate raise (to 20.00%).

From the statement, the inflation rate target remains unchanged at 5%, while the bank sees the continuation of the ongoing tightening stance as necessary to achieve an improvement in the inflation outlook.

In the meantime, the unabated sell-off in the domestic currency remains so far in place amidst rising scepticism among investors at home and abroad regarding the potential further steps towards a more orthodox monetary policy by the newly appointed economic team.

What to look for around TRY

USD/TRY maintains its upside bias well in place, always underpinned by the relentless meltdown of the Turkish currency.

In the meantime, investors are expected to closely monitor upcoming decisions on monetary policy amidst the ongoing downtrend in domestic inflation. 

In a more macro scenario, price action around the Turkish lira is supposed to continue to spin around the performance of energy and commodity prices, which are directly correlated to developments from the war in Ukraine, broad risk appetite trends, and dollar dynamics.

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent skepticism over the CBRT credibility/independence. Absence of structural reforms. Bouts of geopolitical concerns.

USD/TRY key levels

So far, the pair is gaining 0.69% at 26.9199 and faces the next hurdle at 27.0147 (all-time high July 18) followed by 28.00 (round level). On the downside, a break below 22.9997 (55-day SMA) would expose 21.2799 (100-day SMA) and finally 19.9788 (200-day SMA).