WTI crude oil braces for four-week uptrend despite latest inaction below $76.00, focus on China, US Dollar

• WTI crude oil treads water after rising the previous day, appears well set for four-week uptrend.
• Downbeat EIA inventories join China stimulus to provide tailwind to commodity price.
• US Dollar’s recovery from 15-month low, fears that Beijing gradually skids into recession prod Oil buyers amid light calendar.
• Slump in energy stocks, risk-off mood exert downside pressure on WTI.

WTI crude oil clings to mild gains near $75.80 as it prepares for a quiet end to the volatile week after a successive four-week uptrend during early Friday. In doing so, the black gold portrays the Oil market’s struggle amid mixed catalysts surrounding China and the US.

On Thursday, energy shares slumped after the US data and China economic concerns suggested easing future demand for black gold. The same triggered a pullback in the Oil price despite positing the daily gains by the end.

That said, fears of witnessing downbeat China growth weigh on the Oil prices while the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) efforts to defend the world’s second-biggest economy prod the bears. Major US banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut their China growth forecasts in the latest estimations as the statistics from the dragon nation have been downbeat of late.

With this in mind, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its benchmark Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged during Thursday’s Interest Rate Decision but took measures to lure global investment. With this, the one-year and five-year LPRs are held intact at 3.55% and 4.20% respectively while the cross-border funding adjustment parameter for firms was lifted to 1.5 from 1.25. The same allows the Chinese institutes to gain international funding with lesser hardships.

On the same line, Bloomberg came out with news suggesting that Chinese policymakers are up for a step to favor the mortgage easing to spur homebuying in the major.

Elsewhere, Oil inventories per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggest a drop for the week ended on July 14. Following the data, EIA said, per Reuters, “US crude inventories fell last week, supported by a jump in crude exports as well as higher refinery utilization.”

It should be noted that the US Dollar’s corrective bounce off the 15-month low fails to disappoint the Oil buyers amid hopes of witnessing the Fed’s dovish hike in the next week’s monetary policy decision. Even so, the recently firmer US employment clues can check the Oil price upside. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) braces for the first weekly gain in three despite the latest retreat to 100.80.

Moving on, a light calendar can restrict the Oil price upside ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements.

Technical analysis

Oil price seesaws between 100-DMA and 200-DMA, respectively near $73.50 and $76.70, as oscillators lose upside momentum of late.