USD/CHF edges higher past 0.8650, ignores bearish bets on US Dollar ahead of US PMI, Fed decision

• USD/CHF grinds near intraday high, reverses Friday’s U-turn from one-week high.
• CFTC data suggests bearish US Dollar bets jump to record high.
• US statistics flag fears of Fed policy pivot despite lifting greenback from 15-month low in the last week.
• First readings of US S&P Global PMIs for July will direct intraday moves, Fed announcements, US Q2 GDP are crucial.

USD/CHF clings to mild gains around 0.8665 as markets brace for the top-tier data/events during early Monday in Europe. That said, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair rose for the first time in four weeks, bouncing off the lowest levels since late 2015, as the US Dollar cheered upbeat data to challenge the dovish Fed bias. However, the recently bearish US Dollar bias of the asset managers and anxiety ahead of today’s preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for July challenge the pair buyers of late.

That said, Bloomberg quotes the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended on July 18 to state that asset managers boosted bearish dollar bets to a record 18% amid speculation slowing US inflation will hasten the end of the Federal Reserve’s 16-month run of policy tightening.

It should be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) flirts with the intraday low near 101.00 as it retreats from the highest level in eight days while portraying the market’s cautious mood. With this, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies prints the first daily loss in five, after reversing from the lowest levels since April 2022 in the last week.

In the last week, the US housing numbers and regional manufacturing indices were mostly downbeat but an improvement in the Retail Sales Control Group for June defended the Fed hawks, as well as the US Dollar buyers. On the same line were the previously released upbeat prints of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index and consumer inflation expectations for July.  Though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June joined the first below-expectations Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in 15 months to tease the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy pivot past July and challenge the US Dollar bulls.

Hence, the USD/CHF pair traders will not only pay attention to today’s US PMIs but will also closely observe the first readings of the US second-quarter (Q2) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to defend the hawks for clear directions. At home, Wednesday’s Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations and Friday’s KOF Leading Indicator for July can entertain the Swiss Franc pair traders.

Technical analysis

The first daily closing beyond the 10-DMA in two weeks keeps USD/CHF buyers hopeful unless the drops back below the DMA resistance-turned-support of 0.8642.